2024 Melbourne Cup Betting Tips: Who to Back by the Facts
One of Australia’s oldest and most revered races, the history on the ‘Race That Stops a Nation’ gives punters plenty of historical trends and statistical facts to take into account when doing the Melbourne Cup 2024 tips for Tuesday’s big event.
The world-famous Flemington Race 7 jumps at 3:00pm (AEDT) on the first Tuesday of November annually and there are 24 stayers in the mix for this season’s Group 1 $8.56 million Lexus Melbourne Cup (3200m).
The Melbourne Cup betting market at Ladbrokes.com.au tells the story of the Chris Waller-trained Caulfield Cup runner-up Buckaroo proving his two-mile credentials with a second trophy for his trainer while the internationals including Geelong Cup winner Onesmoothoperator and Bendigo Cup champ Sea King chase him over the line.
Other perceived threats to take out the 164th edition of the world’s richest handicap include Irish visitor Vauban back for a second shot, the fellow Willie Mullins-trained raider Absurde also lining-up in the Melbourne Cup field for the second year running, and Ladbrokes Moonee Valley Gold Cup winner Okita Soushi to make jockey Jamie Kah just the second female rider to salute.
That’s the way the bookies have the Melbourne Cup Results 2024 playing out, but what do the Melbourne Cup historical facts and betting statistics on the two-mile classic uncover about which contenders are the genuine winning hopes?
Melbourne Cup Facts Say to Back….
Ciaron Maher-trained Horses
There are four previous Melbourne Cup winning trainers represented in the field this year but the latest to claim the event was Ciaron Maher in partnership with David Eustace with Gold Trip in 2024. Maher is now a solo trainer dominating the spring and he saddles-up four genuine chances looking to add another trophy to the cabinet!
- Back: No. 3 Circle Of Fire ($41), No. 12 Okita Soushi ($20), No. 18 Interpretation ($18), No. 22 Saint George ($31)
Kerrin McEvoy-Ridden Horse
McEvoy has ridden three past Melbourne Cup winners with Cross Counter (2018), Almandin (2016) and Brew (2000). He has run fourth the past two years running on beaten favourite Deauville Legend in 2022 and Ashrun in 2023. He is back for atonement in 2024 chasing a record-equaling fourth victory this year aboard Absurde for Willie Mullins with that horse having placed 7th with Zac Purton aboard last year.
- Back: No. 9 Absurde ($10)
The Runner in Barrier 11
History shows barrier eleven has produced more Melbourne Cup winners than any other with nine previous champions jumping from the gate, most recently Americain (2010), since barriers were introduced. This year barrier eleven belongs to
- Back: No. 1 Vauban ($6.50)
The Horses Starting with T
Horses with a name starting with the Letter ‘T’ have won 16 times in Melbourne Cup history, more than any other. Most recently Twilight Payment (2020).
The Stallions in the Race
Entires have dominated Melbourne Cup Results with entires (horses) aged 4+ saluting 72 times, most recently in 2022 with Gold Trip.
- Back: No. 3 Circle Of Fire ($41), No. 4 Warp Speed ($27), No. 12 Okita Soushi ($20), No. 22 Saint George ($31)
Four-Year-Olds in the Field
4YOs (46) hold the advantage over any other age group when it comes to number of Melbourne Cup winners. Note, northern hemisphere 3Yos race down under as 4YOs and are included here as 4YO winners. The mares Zardozi and Positivity are the sole four-year-old contenders in this year’s field.
Horses Wearing Saddlecloth No. 4
A record 12 Melbourne Cup winners have donned the No. 4 saddlecloth numbers the latest being Verry Elleegant (2021) who was the first since At Talaq (1986) to do so.
- Back: No. 4 Warp Speed ($27)
Horses Weighted between 54kg – 55kg
In the past decade the average Melbourne Cup weight carried to victory is 54kg – 55kg. Three horses fit that weight scale this year with Circle Of Fire, Buckaroo and Warp Speed all allocated 54.5kg.
Runners with Black Silks
More winning jockeys have worn black as their main colour than any other colour. There is just one Melbourne Cup horse donning black silks in 2024 with Okita Soushi racing for Mrs A M Saini.
- Back: No. 12 Okita Soushi ($20)
Melbourne Cup 2024 Odds
| Runner Details | Win | Place |
|---|---|---|
|
1. Vauban (11)
J: William Buick 55.5kg
T: Willie Mullins |
||
| Going well. Comes here off a 51-day let-up. Most recently 2nd in a small field at Curragh in the G1 Irish St Leger on September 15 over 2816m, 2.25 len behind Kyprios carrying 62kg at $9. Before that won by a nose at York G2 Lonsdale Cup August 23 over 3319m defeating Al Nayyir carrying 59.5kg at $6.50. Failed in this last year but is going even better and can atone. | ||
|
2. Buckaroo (21)
J: Joao Moreira 54.5kg
T: Chris Waller |
||
| Useful type. At the latest run 2nd of 18 at Caulfield in the G1 Caul Cup on October 19 over 2400m, slow going 1.3 len behind Duke De Sessa with 54.5kg at $3.80. The race before that 2nd of 16 at this track in the G1 Turnbull on October 5 over 2000m, on a slow track; head behind Via Sistina carrying 58kg at $6.50. Racing very well in the right races, if he stays the trip he'll go awfully close. | ||
|
3. Circle Of Fire (24)
J: Mark Zahra 54.5kg
T: Ciaron Maher |
||
| At the latest run 10th of 18 at Caulfield in the G1 Caul Cup on October 19 over 2400m, slow going 13 len behind Duke De Sessa carrying 54.5kg at $26. The run before that 9th of 16 at this track in the G1 Turnbull on October 5 over 2000m, on a slow track; 6 len behind Via Sistina with 58kg at $81. Up to two miles suits but would've liked to see more last time. | ||
|
4. Warp Speed (3)
J: Akira Sugawara 54.5kg
T: N Takagi |
||
| Second run back. First-up after six months got back early 13th of 18 at Caulfield in the G1 Caul Cup on October 19 over 2400m, on a slow track; 16 len behind Duke De Sessa carrying 54.5kg at $26. Previously second-up 2nd of 15 at Hanshin in the G2 Hshn Daishoten on March 17 over 3000m, 5 len behind T O Royal carrying 57.0kg at $12.80. Rise in trip and dry ground suits but he needs a big form reversal. | ||
|
5. Kovalica (17)
J: Damian Lane 53.5kg
T: Chris Waller |
||
| Useful gelding. Last start eased back early on 6th of 9 at Moonee Valley in the G1 Cox Plate on October 26 over 2040m, 11 len behind Via Sistina with 59kg at $26. The race before that 2nd of 9 at Rosehill in the G2 Hill Stks on October 12 over 1900m, head behind Attrition with 59kg at $4. Has the ability and gets over a staying trip now which may be key. | ||
|
6. Sharp 'N' Smart (15)
J: Michael Dee 53.5kg
T: Graeme & Debbie Rogerson |
||
| Useful type. At the latest run 3rd of 10 at Moonee Valley in the G2 Mv Cup on October 25 over 2500m, 2.5 len behind Okita Soushi with 59kg at $19. Before that 13th of 16 at this track in the G1 Turnbull on October 5 over 2000m, slow going 10 len behind Via Sistina carrying 55kg at $26. Much better last time, will need to improve again. | ||
|
7. Just Fine (13)
J: Jye McNeil 53kg
T: G Waterhouse & A Bott |
||
| Useful gelding. At the latest run raced on the pace before fading ran last of 10 at Moonee Valley in the G2 Mv Cup on October 25 over 2500m, 10 len behind Okita Soushi with 58kg at $9. The race before that won by a head at this track G3 Bart Cummings October 5 over 2520m on a soft track defeating Point King with 57kg at $21. Awful last time and hard to back off that. | ||
|
8. Land Legend (18)
J: Zac Purton 53kg
T: Chris Waller |
||
| Useful type. Most recently 3rd of 18 at Caulfield in the G1 Caul Cup on October 19 over 2400m, on a slow track; 6 len behind Duke De Sessa with 53kg at $8.50. The start before that won by a nose at Randwick G1 The Metrop October 5 over 2400m defeating Zardozi with 51kg at $7.50. Will relish the big track and 3200m; can win. | ||
|
9. Absurde (7)
J: Kerrin McEvoy 52.5kg
T: Willie Mullins |
||
| Back from a spell. Finished off last preparation by 1.3 len Chester LR Chester Stks August 31 over 2916m defeating Caius Chorister carrying 61kg at $3.50. When resuming last campaign second last in a small field at Curragh in the G3 Irish St Lgr Tr August 17 over 2816m, 31 len behind Grosvenor Square with 61kg at $3.80. Ran well here last year in a stronger edition and is going just as well. | ||
|
10. Athabascan (2)
J: Zac Lloyd 52kg
T: John O'Shea & Tom Charlton |
||
| Last start ran on from midfield and won by a nose at Randwick G3 St Leger October 19 over 2600m on a soft track defeating Wyclif carrying 57.5kg at $6.50. Before that raced on the pace before fading 10th of 17 at Randwick in the G1 The Metrop on October 5 over 2400m, 8 len behind Land Legend carrying 54kg at $15. Tidy win last time, doubt he has the class to figure prominently. | ||
|
11. Knight's Choice (6)
J: Robbie Dolan 51.5kg
T: J G Symons & S Laxon |
||
| At the latest run 5th of 15 at Bendigo in the G3 Bdgo Cup on October 30 over 2400m, 5 len behind Sea King with 57kg at $26. The start before that got back early 14th of 18 at Caulfield in the G1 Caul Cup on October 19 over 2400m, on a slow track; 16 len behind Duke De Sessa carrying 51.5kg at $201. A bit better last time but will be deservedly long odds here. | ||
|
12. Okita Soushi (10)
J: Jamie Kah 51kg
T: Ciaron Maher |
||
| Useful type. Last start came from midfield and won by 0.5 len at Moonee Valley G2 Mv Cup October 25 over 2500m defeating Serpentine with 55kg at $11. The race before that rolled along in front before being edged out 2nd of 15 at Caulfield in the G2 Herbert Power on October 12 over 2400m, 1.3 len behind Herman Hesse with 54.5kg at $41. Has found form at the right time and could give a sight. | ||
|
13. Onesmoothoperator (12)
J: Craig Williams 51kg
T: Brian Ellison |
||
| Most recently won by 2.25 len at Geelong G3 Geel Cup October 23 over 2400m defeating Interpretation with 54kg at $11. The start before that 4th of 7 at Kempton Park All Weather in the G3 September Stks on September 7 over 2414m, 7 len behind Kalpana carrying 60.5kg at $34. Looked very good at local debut and this trip will only suit better. | ||
|
14. Zardozi (4)
J: Andrea Atzeni 51kg
T: James Cummings |
||
| Most recently 5th of 13 at this track in the G1 Empire Rose on November 2 over 1600m, 2.5 len behind Atishu carrying 57kg at $19. Before that ran on from midfield; 4th of 18 at Caulfield in the G1 Caul Cup on October 19 over 2400m, slow going 8 len behind Duke De Sessa carrying 51kg at $6.50. Has a few lengths to find on key rivals but has a nice platform to peak here. | ||
|
15. Sea King (1)
J: Hollie Doyle 50.5kg
T: Harry Eustace |
||
| Second run back. First-up after two months ran on from midfield and won by 4 len at Bendigo G3 Bdgo Cup October 30 over 2400m defeating Berkeley Square carrying 54.5kg at $5.50. Previously second-up 14th of 19 at Ascot on June 21 over 2414m, 14 len behind Crystal Black carrying 58.5kg at $23. Only needs to hold that form to be winning again. Dominant at local debut and looks a genuine hope if he can go on with it. | ||
|
16. Valiant King (22)
J: Craig Newitt 50.5kg
T: Chris Waller |
||
| Most recently 9th of 18 at Caulfield in the G1 Caul Cup on October 19 over 2400m, slow going 13 len behind Duke De Sessa carrying 50.5kg at $67. The start before that 10th of 16 at this track in the G1 Turnbull on October 5 over 2000m, on a slow track; 6 len behind Via Sistina carrying 55kg at $101. Might appreciate 3200m but isn't going well enough to win. | ||
|
17. Fancy Man (19)
J: Ron Stewart 50kg
T: Annabel Neasham & Rob Archibald |
||
| Last start 6th of 18 at Caulfield in the G1 Caul Cup on October 19 over 2400m, slow going 9 len behind Duke De Sessa carrying 50kg at $61. The run before that came from midfield; 3rd of 15 at Caulfield in the G2 Herbert Power on October 12 over 2400m, 2.25 len behind Herman Hesse with 55.5kg at $9. Others seem to have his measure. | ||
|
18. Interpretation (14)
J: Teodore Nugent 50kg
T: Ciaron Maher |
||
| Most recently 2nd of 13 at Geelong in the G3 Geel Cup on October 23 over 2400m, 2.25 len behind Onesmoothoperator carrying 54kg at $21. Before that 6th of 13 at this track in the G3 Bart Cummings on October 5 over 2520m, on a slow track; 2.25 len behind Just Fine carrying 54kg at $61. Has been hitting the line strongly in key lead ups, ready to peak. | ||
|
19. Manzoice (8)
J: Declan Bates 50kg
T: Chris Waller |
||
| Most recently 7th of 10 at Moonee Valley in the G2 Mv Cup on October 25 over 2500m, 3.5 len behind Okita Soushi with 55kg at $11. Before that 10th of 13 at this track in the G3 Bart Cummings on October 5 over 2520m, slow going 4.5 len behind Just Fine carrying 54.5kg at $6.50. Hasn't been competitive of late, will be long odds. | ||
|
20. Mostly Cloudy (16)
J: Karis Teetan 50kg
T: Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young |
||
| Comes here off a 31-day let-up. Most recently second last of 13 at this track in the G3 Bart Cummings on October 5 over 2520m, on a slow track; 6 len behind Just Fine with 54.5kg at $10. Before that 4th of 9 at this track in the G3 Archer Stks on September 14 over 2500m, on a wet track; 2 len behind Point King carrying 55.5kg at $4.50. Handy stayer who will run the trip but lacks the class to win. | ||
|
21. Positivity (20)
J: Winona Costin 50kg
T: Andrew Forsman |
||
| Last start raced behind the speed prior to fading 8th of 10 at Moonee Valley in the G2 Mv Cup on October 25 over 2500m, 5 len behind Okita Soushi with 52.5kg at $6. The start before that settled back and ran on when 7th of 13 at this track in the G3 Bart Cummings on October 5 over 2520m, slow going 2.5 len behind Just Fine carrying 54.5kg at $14. Poor last time and 3200m is a query. | ||
|
22. Saint George (9)
J: Tyler Schiller 50kg
T: Ciaron Maher |
||
| Useful type. At the latest run eased back early on 5th of 10 at Moonee Valley in the G2 Mv Cup on October 25 over 2500m, 3 len behind Okita Soushi carrying 55kg at $10. The race before that 9th of 13 at this track in the G3 Bart Cummings on October 5 over 2520m, slow going 4.5 len behind Just Fine with 54kg at $6.50. Showed something last time and this trip should suit; not hopeless. | ||
|
23. The Map (23)
J: Rachel King 50kg
T: Dan Clarken & Oopy MacGillivray |
||
| Last start 6th of 13 at Geelong in the G3 Geel Cup on October 23 over 2400m, 5 len behind Onesmoothoperator with 54kg at $8.50. Before that 5th of 15 at Caulfield in the G2 Herbert Power on October 12 over 2400m, 4 len behind Herman Hesse carrying 54.5kg at $12. Should run the trip but lacks the class to feature. | ||
|
24. Trust In You (5)
J: Mark Du Plessis 50kg
T: Bruce Wallace & Grant Cooksley |
||
| Going well. Last start 4th of 9 at Randwick in the G3 St Leger on October 19 over 2600m, slow going 2.5 len behind Athabascan carrying 57.5kg at $8.50. The run before that made some head-way from midfield; 4th of 17 at Randwick in the G1 The Metrop on October 5 over 2400m, 3.5 len behind Land Legend carrying 53kg at $67. Looks outclassed. | ||
Data retrieved: 03/11/2024 05:37:13 AM (Australia/Brisbane)
*All Melbourne Cup 2024 odds quoted are provided by Ladbrokes.com.au, correct at time of publication, and subject to change at any time without notice.
Race comments
The Melbourne Cup. Plenty of betting angles as usual, with one being whether BUCKAROO (2) will run 3200m strongly. Gelded this campaign, he's been outstanding in defeat at his past two starts, nosed out by Via Sistina in the G1 Turnbull Stakes before charging into second in the G1 Caulfield Cup. That looked a perfect Cup trial, the gamble is whether that translates to two miles. VAUBAN (1) returns to Flemington having started favourite in this race last year and failing. He's coming off a tough second to a superstar in Kyprios and if he handles the occasion, he'll just about win. INTERPRETATION (18) has a sense of timing. He's flown home at his past two and was excellent from a long way back here last year. KOVALICA (5) is very interesting out to a trip, which we haven't seen since his G1 Queensland Derby win. He's got the ability. ONESMOOTHOPERATOR (13) and SEA KING (15) were both excellent at their local debuts and come here with genuine chances.